The general election campaign between Barack Obama and John McCain has now officially begun, and as McCain stumbles out of the starting gate, early momentum strongly appears to be with Obama. On the Republican side, worries abound as to whether McCain himself is up to the challenge he faces, as neoconservative columnist William Kristol observes in today's New York Times. "With the battle against Hillary Clinton behind him, everything seems to be going swimmingly for Obama...," Kristol unhappily writes, "...Meanwhile, the McCain campaign dog-paddles along."

Kristol was especially irked by McCain's poor performance in a speech timed to coincide with Obama's nomination victory last Tuesday. McCain's speech was widely panned by conservatives and liberals alike, who found fault with far more than the harsh, lime-green background which, as liberal blogger Atrios observes, made McCain "look like the cottage cheese in a lime Jell-O salad." (see video). Conservative commentator Fred Barnes of FoxNews said that McCain's speech was "painful" to listen to, while on CNN Republican media consultant Alex Castellanos remarked: "Last I checked this was not a speech-making contest.... Thank God." CNN's Jeff Toobin said more bluntly of McCain's speech: "That was awful.... That was pathetic." Politico's Jonathan Martin asks, "Is there a way John McCain can win the presidency without giving another speech?" Probably not.

McCain's problems, however, don't end with his lack of speechmaking prowess, as Pulitzer-winning political journalist Thomas B. Edsall observes at the Huffington Post. Here, Edsall quotes congressional scholar Thomas E. Mann of the Brookings Institution on McCain's political problems including the lack of a clear rationale for his campaign:

"McCain continues to embrace Bush policies on the most important issues, relying on a reputation for independence and moderation that could be lost in the heat of battle with Obama and the Democrats.... At the end of this long interlude, the only rationale for his election that has emerged is that Obama cannot be trusted to lead the country at a time of great danger because he is too inexperienced, naïve, liberal, elitist, and out of touch with American values. 'Elect me because the other guy is worse.' Not much of an argument in the face of gale-force winds blowing against the Republican Party."

While McCain has serious problems even with the base of his own party, his campaign also trails Obama's in enthusiasm and the ability to attract new voters, as conservative commentator Bay Buchanan writes in Human Events:

"...In reality there is only one candidate. Barack Obama. In November he will win or he will lose.... John McCain is relevant only in so far as he is not Barack Obama. The Senator from Arizona is incapable of energizing his party, brings no new people to the polls, and has a personality that is best kept under wraps.  And while his strong suite is experience, especially on military matters, it was gained almost entirely in Washington, a city that 80% of Americans now believe has miserably misled and mismanaged the nation."

While current poll numbers show a narrow lead for Obama over McCain nationally, MSNBC's First Read notes today that both campaigns expect a 10- to 15-point "bounce" in poll numbers for Obama over the next few weeks while he is covered as the new presumptive Democratic nominee by the media and his bruising nomination battle with Hillary Clinton fades in the rear-view mirror. The Republicans won't go down without a hard, dirty fight, however, and despite his considerable advantages Obama can also expect a rocky road ahead.